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"Wobbles the Mind" (wobblesthemind) 03/12/2020 at 09:29 • Filed to: Stock Market

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I actually took off work today just to watch this. May be historic.

ttyymmnn > Wobbles the Mind 03/12/2020 at 09:32

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As I said last night,  I’m tired of the obsession with the markets. Why do rich people who want to stay rich get to decide if I should panic or not?

vondon302 > Wobbles the Mind 03/12/2020 at 09:38

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I was home Monday and watched that mess. Today might be the sequel.

Thinking about buying some Delta stock tonight just for the hell of it.

Kat Callahan > Wobbles the Mind 03/12/2020 at 09:39

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I dropped $1000 into my S&P 500 index fund in my Roth IRA, figured either, buy into the dip, since I don’t retire for 30 years, or we’re all fucked anyway, and I can’t take it with me, so...

Thomas Donohue > Wobbles the Mind 03/12/2020 at 09:40

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Down 7% instantly....circuit breakers tripped again.

I’ll probably wait for it get to ~ 20,000 before sliding some money back in, I hope that’s the floor. It’s not much cash , but I’m glad I sold some stuff in Feb.

ttyymmnn > Wobbles the Mind 03/12/2020 at 09:41

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“Travel restrictions equal slower global economic activity, so if you need any more coaxing to sell sell sell sell after a massively negative signal from overnight trading in US markets it just fell in your lap,” Innes wrote. ( CNN )

This after futures shed 1,000 points following Trump’s speech. This is the definition of “not helping.”

ttyymmnn > vondon302 03/12/2020 at 09:42

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Delta, yes, American, no. There’s talk of AA going bankrupt again. If I were a betting man, I’d definitely bet on the airlines. This will eventually blow over, and people will start flying again.

Highlander-Datsuns are Forever > vondon302 03/12/2020 at 09:44

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That’s not a bad idea.

Brickman > Wobbles the Mind 03/12/2020 at 09:44

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I don’ t have any stocks, so I should be good. DO have LEGO though, always a great investment :P

Wobbles the Mind > ttyymmnn 03/12/2020 at 09:45

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With the markets being forward looking, this is essentially pricing in the amount of panic they are expecting everyone to have once it actually hits us  later. 

vondon302 > ttyymmnn 03/12/2020 at 09:48

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Exactly my thinking. The odds just went up for me buying some.

Tekamul > Wobbles the Mind 03/12/2020 at 09:48

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Keep dropping, baby!

My company is distributing a 401k profit share at the end if this week, so I want to see the bottom.

functionoverfashion > Wobbles the Mind 03/12/2020 at 09:49

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Feeling better about my January 30 land purchase by the day. Pulled some money out to make it happen; would have been a different story today. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Wobbles the Mind 03/12/2020 at 09:49

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Will you be buying?

ttyymmnn > Wobbles the Mind 03/12/2020 at 09:51

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A question for the hive: If the economy does officially go into a recession, is that a good time or a bad time to buy a car? 

K-Roll-PorscheTamer > Wobbles the Mind 03/12/2020 at 09:58

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I wish I had the money to invest in stocks. Will there ever be a better time to dive in than today?

Thomas Donohue > ttyymmnn 03/12/2020 at 09:59

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This. Also, because the government will surely help them out gain. United and Delta is what I’m thinking.

Boeing is awfully tempting at this point, but they have so many issues.  But at under $150 it could be a great 7 year stock.

ITA97, now with more Jag @ opposite-lock.com > ttyymmnn 03/12/2020 at 10:00

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Given the lower interest rates and increased incentives that will probably be on the hood, it can be a great time to buy a new car if your personal financial situation  is stable.

facw > ttyymmnn 03/12/2020 at 10:00

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But do you buy the existing airlines, or the new companies that will buy them out of bankruptcy when travel picks up?

facw > Kat Callahan 03/12/2020 at 10:04

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Yeah, I decided last night to max my 2019 (since apparently I hadn’t done it) and 2020 Roths. I expect things will continue tumbling today, especially our orange genius’ pep-talk last night, but Vanguard usually takes a few days to actually do the buy (to discourage market timing) , and while things certainly can get worse, on the scale of a retirement account, it’s not the end of the world if I lose money short term, but you’d hate to miss the dip.

Wobbles the Mind > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/12/2020 at 10:05

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Nothing changes with my 401k, and I do the max on my Roth IRA at the start of the year so can’t buy there at all . The only companies I’m buying on the way down are MSCI (ticker MSCI) and Ferrari (ticker RACE). That's entirely personal though, and not a recommendation.

facw > ttyymmnn 03/12/2020 at 10:08

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Yeah, hurting the economy while doing nothing to slow the spread of COVID-19 is not the way to make the markets happy. Trump has no idea what he’s doing, is too dumb to realize that, and has chased out anyone smarter with the courage to stand up to him.

On a side note, idiots playing with fire is a close second to sovereign citizen interactions with police for my favorite low-brow youtube entertainment.  

I like cars: Jim Spanfeller is one ugly motherfucker > ttyymmnn 03/12/2020 at 10:15

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The market will bounce back within two years tops. Your personal portfolios will almost certainly be fine. I mean, just look at how markets performed in the years following the economic catastrophe that was 2008. The only ones who will significantly benefit or be hurt by a market crash are the super rich, who might find themselves a few billion richer or poorer. I am not concerned with this.

Wobbles the Mind > ttyymmnn 03/12/2020 at 10:15

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The best time to buy is when people are desperate to sell. The hard part is that even though that car is a great buy, that buyer may end up out of work or suddenly under some type of economic hardship that wasnt there prior to the purchase and now they are the ones desperate to sell.

JeepJeremy > Brickman 03/12/2020 at 10:17

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LEGO sets are a good investment. I’ve also heard comic books are great investments too

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Wobbles the Mind 03/12/2020 at 10:20

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You’re saying you own more than 1 Ferrari?

I don’t mess with individual stocks much, but I used to get some from work, and Mrs. addiction still does (in O&G, so both down a ridiculous amount off when they were granted - have to laugh to keep from crying...). I did buy some OIH earlier this week, just for grins (also not a recommendation).

Lot of year in the market right now.

My wife’s... Just brutal.

Snuze: Needs another Swede > ttyymmnn 03/12/2020 at 10:21

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Depends on a few things - 1) can you afford it (I’m assuming by asking you can) 2) what happens with gas prices 3) what happens with the auto industry and 4) what kind of car and new or used? There are other factors but those are the big ones I can think of.

Right now OPEC is playing price games with Russia which should keep fuel cheap, so a bit of a different scenario than the 2008 Recession. Recession in general will cause new car sales to fall, but they will fall across the board. So there will be some incentive to drop prices and move units.

If the recession last a long time and hammers automakers hard, and you start seeing bankruptcy and bailout talk, they may drop prices further.

On the used front you may see people selling off luxury cars to get out from under payments.

If gas prices start going up like they did in 08/09 then sales of inefficient vehicles like large trucks and SUVs will tank, and you’ll see the market for small efficient cars, both new and used, balloon.

I n 07 I bought a used Ram diesel for $12k. A year later fuel was at almost $5/gal, I was a poor enlisted sailor, was driving more and the truck was having issues. I took a gamble and traded it in on a base model Cobalt o ut the door for $13k (thanks GM Bankruptcy Bailout) . Went from 18 MPG in diesel to 35 MPG instantly. My monthl y delta was almost zero because of the savings in fuel alone. In 2011 I got hit and the car was totaled and actually still worth more than what I paid for it, so I rolled that money into the Cruze and got a much nicer, and slightly more efficient car. In the long run it saved my ass, financially speaking.

My father in law, who is rather well heeled and very fiscally responsible, bought a super nice Tahoe during the 2008 recession. It was a slightly used 2006 model, only like 20k on the clock, loaded LTZ, every option. It was probably a $60k MSRP truck and I want to say he got it for around $20k, give or take . But like I said, he’s good with money and was in a good position to make that purchase.  

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Tekamul 03/12/2020 at 10:26

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Mrs. addiction’s stock has dropped so low they they gave them their long-term incentives in cash instead of stock.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > K-Roll-PorscheTamer 03/12/2020 at 10:27

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Maybe tomorrow, but yeah, it seems like a great time to take advantage of all the fear-based selling right now.

K-Roll-PorscheTamer > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/12/2020 at 10:30

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If I only had the money!

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > ttyymmnn 03/12/2020 at 10:32

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Sad, but true, there will be a lot of over- leveraged O&G employees looking to get out from under car loans soon...

ttyymmnn > Thomas Donohue 03/12/2020 at 10:33

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Some airline, don’t remember which, just canceled their Max order. I wonder how many airlines will just say no thanks, you can keep them, when they are recertified. 

Wobbles the Mind > K-Roll-PorscheTamer 03/12/2020 at 10:34

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M aybe, we dont get actual numbers for the economic impact of all of this until companies deliver their first quarter earnings starting in April through June.

I f you do decide to get in, just do a little bit at a time. Think of it as SPENDING money in  investing instead of SAVING money by investing and you'll be great.

ttyymmnn > facw 03/12/2020 at 10:35

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I would buy Delta. They seem to have the most solid management structure right now, one that can help them see their way through this. Although the bloodletting there has already begun. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Brickman 03/12/2020 at 10:35

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Have you ever sold any of your LEGO? Ha!

ttyymmnn > facw 03/12/2020 at 10:36

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I got this text from a friend who knows a hell of a lot more about economics than I do:

I don’t even know what to say anymore.

I hope he shorted the market before he made his speech so that he could make tons and tons of money. Because if he just bumbled into this thing without profiting that’s totally ignorant.

ITA97, now with more Jag @ opposite-lock.com > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/12/2020 at 10:36

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Used b ro trucks for everyone, now cheap! At least if what I see in Eastern NM’s oil  patch is any indication...

ttyymmnn > I like cars: Jim Spanfeller is one ugly motherfucker 03/12/2020 at 10:39

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I’m not concerned either, it’s just that all the news about markets and soaring infection rates only instill panic and toilet paper buying. I watched a video of Louis Rukeyser following the crash of 87. Basically, he said, “The sun will come up tomorrow, the birds will sing, and everything will be okay.” He also pointed out how similar collapses have occurred, and that the recovery has been shorter and shorter each time.

Brickman > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/12/2020 at 10:41

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Actually yes. My star wars collection. Built me a gaming PC in 2011 :)

And Bionicles back when it was still a thing... I guess 

ttyymmnn > Wobbles the Mind 03/12/2020 at 10:42

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I think our money situation is stable, so I’m not concerned about that. I’m just wondering if I’ll get a good deal. 

ttyymmnn > Snuze: Needs another Swede 03/12/2020 at 10:44

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a poor enlisted sailor

Ever sail through Norfolk? I used to live there. Seeing all that hardware, plus the a/c from Oceana, is what got me interested in military history in general and aviation specifically. I miss the F-14s.

Thanks for the long reply. I appreciate it. 

ttyymmnn > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/12/2020 at 10:45

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All I want is a nice mini van. Sad, but true. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Wobbles the Mind 03/12/2020 at 10:46

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Great advice my (CFP) brother gave me:

If you’re ever thinking of selling/buying, just do half (or less) what you’re thinking. If it turns out great, you’re happy you made some profit , if it turns out poorly, you’re glad you didn’t do as much as you’d planned (if selling, glad you have more to sell at a higher price). 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > functionoverfashion 03/12/2020 at 10:48

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Fortuitous! I sold some company stock (very high in hindsight) many years ago to buy my M3. Not like my car was a great investment, but it’s given me tons of joy, and it’s worth more today than the stock would be - ha! 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > ITA97, now with more Jag @ opposite-lock.com 03/12/2020 at 10:51

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Haha, plenty of those, but plenty of sports & luxury cars, too.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > ttyymmnn 03/12/2020 at 10:53

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Just depends on what all this means for the average person. Consumer confidence will likely go down, which means car sales will decline, which means pricing will get competitive. Seems like it could be a good time to buy, just might have to wait a little while.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Brickman 03/12/2020 at 10:57

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Do you keep boxes, or just instructions?

Snuze: Needs another Swede > ttyymmnn 03/12/2020 at 11:08

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Unfortunately, yes. I hated it.

I was originally a submariner and sailed out of Groton, CT . We pulled into Norfolk a few times and it was always a miserable 6+ hour surface transit in and out. Surface transits on a sub get rough, they aren’t designed to take waves and wake.

After a couple years I had some medical issues crop up that disqualified me from the submarine force and nuclear field duty. I ended up as a storekeeper down in Norfolk working in an aviation support detachment, tracking helicopter parts. It wasn’t particularly interesting, but it takes a lot of cogs to run the machine, and I did get to go out on the Eisenhower for a couple weeks, so that was cool. Seeing them shoot and catch planes was incredible.

One of the high points of living in Norfolk, though, was when the Super Horne ts from NAS Oceana would fly over. It still makes the hairs on the back of my neck stand up just thinking about it. A little greeting I picked up from the aviation was community was “Hey, what’s up?” “Hard d!&* s and Super Hornets!”

Thomas Donohue > ttyymmnn 03/12/2020 at 11:12

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Yeah, a few of them cancelled and others swapped for new 787 orders.  Definitely a long term buy, if and when....

Brickman > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/12/2020 at 11:12

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For Bionicle and Star Wars I sold them with box and instructions . C ity and Creator I keep the instructions to go with the set

Wobbles the Mind > ttyymmnn 03/12/2020 at 11:13

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D efinitely! Especially since the manufacturers and dealer s will do all they can to keep moving cars, and the cheaper the new cars sell, the lower the used car prices have to drop in order to be competitive . Recessions are ideal times to buy as l ong as you dont sell until you're out of them.

ttyymmnn > Thomas Donohue 03/12/2020 at 11:14

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Might be a nice time to fly domestically, though. AA and United are bringing some of their wide bodies from Asia to the US to fly them on domestic routes because it’s cheaper than parking them. Might get a chance to fly on some relatively empty airplanes. 

Azrek > Wobbles the Mind 03/12/2020 at 11:16

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Woah...I have $100 in $2 dollar bills. Where can I meet this fine gentleman? That car is a beauty. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Brickman 03/12/2020 at 11:30

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Yeah, I always keep instructions, but hardly ever boxes. I only have a few sets that are “mine” - my kids’ sets all end up getting broken and separated anyway. Never have sold any, likely never will. When my kids are done with them, they’ll go in a box for my grandkids or go on loan to my nieces and nephews.

fintail > ttyymmnn 03/12/2020 at 12:21

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They decide everything else, why not? It’s the real golden rule.

Looking at the average and median 401K balances out there, it is hard to see why people freak out.  The typical person has relatively nothing.

Shoop > ttyymmnn 03/12/2020 at 12:31

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Good time. My dad bought my truck from gm in 2008 for like $10k off. 

Kat Callahan > facw 03/12/2020 at 18:34

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I also have Vang uard. Don’t have enough to max out, ever. It’s like $6000, and I don’t have that to spare. I did put the $1000 on 2019 though. If I manage to, and I might, I’ll drop more in before the switchover.